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REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR CONSULTING SERVICES (CONSULTING SERVICES – FIRMS SELECTION)

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THE REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT OF ZANZIBAR

MINISTRY OF WATER ENERGY AND MINERALS

(MoWEM)

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR CONSULTING SERVICES (CONSULTING SERVICES – FIRMS SELECTION)

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

ZANZIBAR ENERGY SECTOR TRANSFORMATION AND ACCESS PROJECT

CREDIT NUMBER: 68970-TZ

CTF LOAN NUMBER: TFOBS747-TZ

CTF GRANT NUMBER: TFOBS660-TZ

Assignment Title: Consultancy Services for Development of Zanzibar’s Integrated Resource Plan

Reference No: P168561

The Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar (RGoZ), through The United Republic of Tanzania, intends to implement the Zanzibar Energy Sector Transformation and Access Project (ZESTA) with financing obtained from the World Bank. RGZ intends to apply part of the funding for the consulting services for Development of Zanzibar’s Integrated Resource Plan.

Objective

The objective of the assignment is to develop a national Integrated Resource Plan(IRP) which will define a least cost power development plan(LCPDP) for the Zanzibar power sector that is aligned with the RGQZ’s priorities as enshrined in Zanzibar’s Energy Policy and Zanzibar Development Vision 2050.

Scope of assignment

The Consulting firm will be required to perform the following tasks:

The Consultant will be required to perform the following specific tasks:

 Task 1: Review existing power sector development plans and relevant polices, and develop realistic economic and cost assumptions

a) Review previous studies, reports, plans, and policies relevant for development of the IRP.

b) Review existing demand forecasts and economic studies and propose income elasticity and price

elasticity factors to be used for the IRP.

c) Review available economic growth projections and historic demand growth to determine the

relationship between economic growth and electricity demand.

d) Develop realistic assumptions on the potential impact of implementing various demand side management options.

Il. Task 2: Develop Electricity Demand Forecasts for Zanzibar

This activity involves the development of electricity demand forecasts for Zanzibar for the same horizon as the LCPDP IRP and, specifically, includes:

a) Developing a 20-year demand forecast that considers both the energy demand (MW), energy

consumption (kWh), and any expected changes in the shape of the daily load curve and seasonal/annual load curve, as well as the impact of any repressed demand due to the adoption of various demand side management measures.

b) The demand forecast should take into consideration the geographical consumption pattern (district, regional and national level) for the all-customer categories for the relevant geographic area.

Ill. Task 3: Development of a least-cost power development plan (LCPOP) including defining and evaluating generation options, import sources, and demand management options

This activity involves the development of a LCPDP for Zanzibar for a 20-year horizon starting in 2022. The LCPDP shall include recommendations for the development of an optimal expansion plan for the generation and transmission system of focusing on the identified supply options and relevant RGOZ policy goals. The optimal expansion plan shall aim to minimize the expected net present value of investment, operating costs and cost of unserved demand over the 20-year period, subject to risk-based constraints regarding minimum levels of reliability and maximum levels of operation costs. The Consultant will perform the following sub-tasks:

a) Review possible electricity generation options in Zanzibar taking into consideration Zanzibar’s energy resources and any renewable energy development and penetration policy goals/targets. The generation options can include hybrid systems and utility scale battery energy storage systems (BESS), among others.

b) Identify all possible electricity import options for Zanzibar including their capacities and cost estimates.

c) Identify all applicable demand-side management measures and their potential impact on power

demand/energy consumption.

d) Categorize the identified supply/generation options in terms of: (i) whether they are existing system, committed, or planned; (ii) feasible installed capacities and locations in the context of projected local demand; (iii) estimated investment costs (including interest during construction and other applicable lifecycle costs); (iv) (v) availability profile; (vi) production profile (i.e., daily and seasonal); (vii) emissions, including cost analysis based on assumptions agreed with ZECO and ZURA; and  (ix) project development lead times

e) Assess and quantify each import option in terms of; (i) lifecycle costs; (ii) availability profile; (iii) production profile (daily and seasonal); (iv) emissions, including cost analysis based on assumptions agreed with ZECO and ZURA; and (v) project development lead times.

f) Assess and quantify each demand management option in terms of; (i)reasonable implementation scope in Zanzibar; (ii) expected capital cost if implemented (including interest during construction and other applicable lifecycle costs); (iii) impact on demand and load curves (daily and seasonal); and (iv) lead times.

IV. Task 4: Develop and analyses policy implementation scenarios

These quantitative assessments will take account of the relevant technical and economic criteria for the creation of a long-term development plan, focusing exclusively on the following hierarchical steps for generation and transmission system expansion planning (i.e., once the optimal generation expansion plan is known, an associated optimal transmission network expansion plan should be developed).

a) Develop a set of scenarios including a reference scenario and two sensitivity scenarios depicting

different prioritization of energy policy objectives.

  • Briefly describe for each scenario the policy objective being addressed and how it is to be factored into the selection of generation/supply options.
  •  Decide for each scenario the generation, import, and demand management options that should be considered.
  • Prepare an investment schedule for each scenario with milestones for deploying generation options and their capacities, imports, and demand-side management to meet projected demand while satisfying the relevant policy drivers.
  •  This analysis should consider option lead times, end user/consumer price projections, current and projected load curves, how these would be affected by demand-side management options, and the likely impact of key macroeconomic indicators.

b) Conduct all the necessary economic and financial analyses for optimization of the different scenarios.

c) Identify and quantify key parameters for sensitivity analysis including but not limited to changes in (i) fuel costs; (ii) discount rate; (iii) investment costs; and (iv) demand forecasts.

d) ‘The intermittency (variability and uncertainty) of renewable energy resources will be considered in the analyses, and its effects over supply costs and reliability – including additional requirements on the development and operation of dispatch able and flexible supply-side resources will be considered when developing the LCPDP scenarios. The analyses will take account of the additional requirements on the development and operation of dispatch able and flexible supply-side resources to allow the incorporation of intermittent generation in the system.

 e) Conduct comprehensive portfolio risk analysis of electricity supply scenarios, including:

  • Demand risk: impact of the changes in the demand forecast
  • Supply risk: impact of changes in fuel prices and reliability of generation options
  •  Impact on the security of electricity supply in Zanzibar.
  •  Environmental, social, climate change risks.

f) Select a reference scenario and two most promising and/or likely scenarios for detailed analysis.

g) Analyze the reference scenario and the other two likely scenarios

  • Perform sensitivity analysis on key assumptions.
  •  Perform macro-economic impact analysis.
  •  Perform environmental impact and emissions analysis.
  •  Identify the best scenario as base case.
  •  Develop a financial implementation plan for the base case.

V. Task 5: Conclusions and documentation of the outcome/results

a) Draw conclusions and recommendations from the analyses carried in relation to:

  • The share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix, in the short, medium, and long term, and measures to achieve these levels.
  • The contribution of demand-side management interventions in the planning and implementation of electricity sector investments.

V. Task 5: Conclusions and documentation of the outcome/results

a) Draw conclusions and recommendations from the analyses carried in relation to:

  • The share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix, in the short, medium, and long term, and measures to achieve these levels.
  • The contribution of demand-side management interventions in the planning and implementation of electricity sector investments.

Vi. Task 6: Capacity Building

a) The consultant shall provide training to six (6) select staff from MoWEM, ZURA, and ZECO to build the capacity of the various personnel for the implementation of similar work in the future. The capacity

building/training should cover all areas of the IRP development including the use and maintenance of the various models developed under the assignment. The Consultant shall clearly include the budget allocation for the proposed training in their financial proposal.

The time to complete the whole assignment is between 10 to 12 months. The specific time shall be decided during the negotiation.

The Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals now invites eligible consulting firm to indicate their interest in providing the above services. Interested consulting firm should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualifications and relevant experience to perform the services. The consulting firm (or consortium of firms) should have at least the following qualifications and experience:

The consulting firm (or consortium of firms) is required to have the following experience:

A. Core Business and year is Business

i) At least fifteen (15) years’ experience in consulting work of which ten (10) years must be in similar assignment

B. Relevant similar experience, which should specifically include the below:

i) Must have successfully carried out at least five (5) assignments of similar nature and scope for

electricity sectors in developing countries, three of which should be in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.

ii) Information of the previous assignments to be provided should include name of assignment, name and full contact address of the client, tasks performed by the consultant under the assignment, assignment value (in equivalent US dollars), period (dates) of execution of assignment

C. Technical and Managerial capability of the firm in the areas of power supply, energy efficiency, and demand side management. (Provide only the structure of the organization, general qualifications and number of key staff. Do not provide CV of the staff. Experts will not be evaluated at the shortlisting stage.”

The attention of interested consulting firm is drawn to Section Ill, paragraphs, 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” November 2020, setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest. Firms intending to submit expression of interest should not have conflict of interest and unfair competitive advantage as per Bank’s Procurement Regulations. Consultants may associate with other firms in the form of a joint venture or a sub-consultancy to enhance their qualifications. For firms participating in JV, each member of UV should independently meet the requirement of Eol criteria. For firm participating as association of lead and sub consultant, only the experience and qualification of lead firm will be assessed as per Eol criteria

 A Consulting firm will be selected in accordance with the Quality and Cost Based Selection method set out in the Procurement Regulations.

The detailed Terms of Reference (TOR) for the assignment can be found at the following https://www.zanzibar-energy.com/energy-sector-library/ then on the institution choose Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals or www.majismz.go.tz Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours, 07:00 to 03.30pm East African Time.

Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form to the address below in person (hard copy along with an USB drive), or e-mail by 02.30pm EAT on June 24, 2022.

Ministry of Water Energy and Minerals

ZURA building 5th floor,

Procurement Unit, Room No. 502.

Attn: Saleh Said Suleiman (Project Coordinator)

P.O. Box 1589 Zanzibar

Maisara, Zanzibar

Tel: +255 776 858555

E-mail: [email protected] and copy to [email protected]

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